Holiday Weight Gain: Research vs. Reality
In our recent and first ever podcast, we discussed staying on track through the holidays. One of the topics that came up was whether or not the research reflected reality when it came to holiday weight gain. Check out the video below and to see how QUICKLY the combination of over-consumption and lack of physical activity during the holiday season can derail progress.
Research shows that the average holiday weight gain is LESS than 2 lbs.
While that may be the average, there are others who gain quite a bit more.
In fact, some report gaining 8, 12, or even upwards of 15 lbs in the time between Halloween and New Year's Day!
Is that even possible?
Let's find out...
A 15-pound gain over 3 months is only 5 pounds per month.
If we were talking about a goal of losing 15 pounds over 3 months, that's right in line with the often-recommended strategy of losing 1-2 lbs per week.
Looking at the upward trend in obesity rates over that past several decades, it's safe to say that it's likely much easier to gain 1-2 lbs per week than to lose it.
How easy is it to gain 15 lbs in 3 months?
***The math below assumes that all 15 lbs of weight gain are coming from fat, which is not likely. For the sake of simplicity we'll assume that's true for now and adjust later.***
THE MATH:
There are approximately 3,500 calories in a pound of fat.
3,500 calories x 15 lbs = 52,500 calories
3 months = 90 days
52,500 calories/90 days = 583 calories per day average
An average surplus of 583 calories per day for 3 months is all it would take to gain 15 lbs.
To put that into perspective, 583 calories is the equivalent of:
About 11 Oreos
7.3 Fun-Sized Snickers
About 2 standard Pizza Slices
Just over 1 slice of most Pumpkin Pies
Just over 1 Starbucks Venti Pumpkin Spiced Lattes
All of the little treats, sugary seasonal drinks, and heavier meals start to add up.
Not only that...
Typically this is the time of year that activity levels decrease drastically.
The weather is colder, the days are shorter...
Kids' school and extracurricular activities are in full swing...
Traveling, visiting with family, holiday parties with friends, and shopping for gifts between all of that are all in addition to normal, every day life.
For many, this all comes at the expense of their training or workouts.
Similarly, physical activity from yard work and other seasonal household chores naturally decrease.
One study reports that average weekly physical activity drops by 15-20% during the months of October to March (fall through winter) compared to April through September (spring through summer).
Over-Consumption Meets Lack of Physical Activity...
Again for the sake of simplicity, let's assume that an individual is on a 2,000 calorie per day diet.
Over 90 days, or 3 months, they would consume 180,000 calories.
If they were maintaining weight, they would also be burning 180,000 calories in that three months through physical activity (the most variable), digestion, and other biological processes.
To gain 15 lbs of fat, they would have to be in a 52,000 calorie surplus by EITHER:
Consuming 232,500 calories, and still burning 180,000
Consuming 180,000 calories, and only burning 127,500
Or meeting somewhere in the middle
If weekly physical activity drops 20%...
That's 36,000 calories LESS that this individual is expending over 90 days.
MORE MATH:
15 lbs of fat = 52,500 calories
36,000 less calories expended through physical activity.
52,500 - 36,000 = 16,500 calories
Just by decreasing physical activity by 20%, this person is over 2/3 of the way to gaining 15 lbs.
So now, instead of over-consuming an average of 583 calories per day to reach a 52,500 surplus...
Because of the lack of physical activity...
This person would reach the 52,500 calorie surplus by only over-consuming an average of 183 calories per day (16,500 calories / 90 days = 183).
To put that into perspective, 183 calories is the equivalent of:
About 3-4 Oreos (regular, not double stuffed)
2-3 Fun-Sized Snickers
A Small Slice of Thin-Crust Pizza
Just over 1/2 slice of most Pumpkin Pies
A "tall" (small) Starbucks Pumpkin Spiced Latte (with no milk or whipped cream)
Conclusion:
It is completely plausible that someone can gain 10-15 pounds through the holiday season (October through December) by combining a reduction in physical activity by up to 20% and over-consumes calories by up to 30% on a weekly basis.
It is not likely that all weight gained through the holidays is pure fat.
However, we can assume with a reduction in physical activity that the weight gain is not from putting on slabs of muscle.
It is likely a combination of fat accumulation and water retention.
Water retention is the result of increased carbohydrates, fats, and salts in conjunction with a lack of exercise. Although it can be uncomfortable and frustrating, the feeling and the water weight are temporary.
Unfortunately, that's not always true about the fat accumulation...
Especially when over 40.
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